Chapter Six: Early Action
Presidential campaigns have always started well in advance of the first caucus or party primary. The 2008 election has followed, and even accelerated, this pattern. Because of the front-loaded primary schedule and the need to raise increasing amounts of campaign cash, contenders in the 2008 presidential contest were busy campaigning and raising money in 2006.
Some experts on politics used to call this competition for funds “the invisible primary”—but it’s not invisible any more. In fact, the candidates’ fundraising totals for the first quarter of 2007 got lots of news coverage, because those numbers were seen as an early indicator of how well their campaigns were doing. For the 2008 election, it would be more accurate to just call this competition “the money primary.”
Laying the Groundwork: Campaigning Unannounced
A presidential campaign begins long before a contender’s formal announcement of candidacy. In the earliest stages of the campaign, “unannounced” presidential candidates try to build a favorable image in their party and throughout the country by making frequent public speeches and appearing at important party functions. It is now common for presidential candidates to start visiting leadoff primary and caucus states such as Iowa and New Hampshire two years or more before voters in those states choose among their parties’ contenders. The goals of these early visits are to build name recognition, make important connections with party leaders, and create a foundation of support in states that traditionally have set the tone for the primary season.
The Money Chase, Part I: PAC It Up
Another established practice among would-be candidates long before a presidential election is to establish one or more political action committees. These “leadership PACs” allow candidates to collect contributions that do not count against their presidential fundraising and spending limits—as long as they haven’t officially filed with the Federal Election Commission as candidates for president.
One trick that many presidential candidates now employ in their early fund-raising is to create leadership PACs in states with lax election laws. Unlike PACs established under federal election rules, which are restricted to collecting individual contributions of $5,000 or less, these state-level PACs can collect contributions of any amount and from any source, subject only to state law.
The Money Chase, Part II: The Exploratory Committee
If presidential candidates feel that they have a shot at winning the party nomination based on some of the activities described above, the next step is to file papers with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). This allows candidates to start raising money for polling and other campaign activities that will move them closer to a formal announcement.
Filing papers with the FEC usually coincides with announcements by candidates that they have formed an “exploratory committee” to investigate the possibility of a presidential run. Even if it’s clear that the candidates have every intention of running for president, this exploratory committee provides an escape hatch should they decide the time’s not right to run. Equally important, the announcement of an exploratory committee offers candidates an early shot of free publicity that can be repeated later on, when these candidates make it official that they are running for president.
In recent years, however, candidates have realized that the sooner they get started raising the $50 million or more dollars they need to run a credible primary campaign, the better. And to start raising money, they have to file papers with the FEC. With donations for the primaries limited to $2,300 per person, the candidates will need to find at least 20,000 individual donors apiece. And they’ll have to do it while their competitors for the party’s nomination are knocking on many of the same folks’ doors. Moreover, many candidates also seek out smaller contributions as well—they look better politically, plus a higher proportion will be eligible for federal matching funds.
Raising a great deal of money early—before the actual election year—has become essential to a successful campaign because of the “front-loaded” schedule of primary elections. In 2008, a “super-primary” for twenty or more states is scheduled for February 5. That means that most of both parties’ delegates will have been chosen by the end of February, so a candidate needs a big war chest by the fall of 2007 to pay for all that early campaigning.
After the Early Going: A Winnowing of the Field
By the end of the year preceding the presidential election—for the 2008 election, that means the end of 2007—the field of contenders for the party nominations usually has narrowed. If a candidate has failed to attract enough money and other support to mount a competitive race, the best thing to do now is to bow out instead of driving one’s campaign further into debt.
In fact, with the accelerated schedule of the 2008 race and the increased need for huge piles of cash ASAP, some candidates who at first seemed clearly interested left the field before campaigning at all. Among those: former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Senator Bill Frist, R-Tenn., and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack.
Campaign Polling: Fishing for Opinion
For today’s presidential candidates, polling has become an indispensable campaign tool from the early phases of the election onward. All major candidates employ professional pollsters to keep their fingers on the pulse of public opinion through telephone surveys and other methods. How do candidates use polls?
• To judge their chances of winning
• To identify issues voters care about
• To test campaign messages before they are incorporated into advertising and speeches
• To find out which voter groups—for example, the young, seniors, women, or residents of the Southeast—are most and least likely to support the candidate
• To figure out whether they are connecting with voters and whether their advertising and other campaigning are having the desired effect—namely, to attract support
The candidates’ polls are rarely made public. They are normally used within the campaigns to help shape and refine campaign strategy, to sharpen the candidates’ messages, and to determine what issues they should focus on. For example, if polling finds that a candidate’s support among women voters is lacking, then the candidate might start to focus on issues that the campaign’s polls say women care about.
The bottom line is that for better or worse, what a presidential candidate says in speeches, interviews, and advertising has been thoroughly tested before you, the voter, hear it. In the high-stakes game of presidential politics, it’s rare for a candidate to say or do much at all without first consulting the polls (see chapter 4 for more).
From the book, Choosing the President 20008: A Citizen’s Guide to the Electoral Process.Copyright 2008 by the League of Women Voters
Used by permission of Globe Pequot Press, www.globepequot.com
